How our Chief Data Scientist and his research colleague predicted the election outcome 100 days in advance

Peter Enns and Julius Lagondy describe their model and its implications in the Washington Post

Reality Check Insights’ Co-Founder Peter Enns and his research colleague, Julius Lagondy, developed the The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model.

Released more than 100 days before the election, Peter and Julius correctly predicted 49 of 50 states. They discuss their model and its implications in The Washington Post.

The core drivers of the model include:

1) State presidential approval (based on almost 90,000 respondents)

2) State economic conditions

3) Past state vote