Election Prediction Model
Reality Check Insights’ Co-Founder Peter Enns and his research colleague, Julius Lagondy, developed the The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model
Spoiler: A 60% chance of a Biden/Harris victory
The core drivers of the model include:
1) State presidential approval (based on almost 90,000 respondents)
2) State economic conditions
3) Past state vote
This forecast is based on data from 104 days before the election. Watch as Peter and Julius run 70,000 election simulations to arrive at the 60% chance that the Biden/Harris ticket wins!
See here for the full article pre-print and subscribe for state predictions.